Friday, 1 June 2012

The Judgement Day

The Judgement Day
Last night, when my favourite television channel played "Terminator 2 : Judgement Day", my mind unthinkingly conjured a calendar with June 17th - The Judgement Day scowling at me icily as if to stamp the significance of the day. This June 17th, when hot summer dragon will lay its claws over most of Asia, it is Europe that will be set to fire. After the May 6 vote left the Greek assembly on an even keel between groups who support the austerity measures and those who do not, Greece is now driven into re-elections  on 17th June.

 Alchemists, Shamans and Occultists believe that Dec 21st, 2012 is "The Judgement Day" which will decide the course of the survival of Mother Earth. Some have even towered above the magnitudes to predict that Earthquakes caused by Tsunamis will wipe out the planet in its entirety. Economists and Alchemists have always been like nights and days, poles apart - Satanic for one, Recession for another.187 days prior to the heralded apocalypse lie a day that can decide the course of the turbulent financial tide in Europe.  

The dilemma facing Greeks is downright: To support pro-bailout parties ( New Democracy, PASOK ) and quaff austere measures, or To back anti-bailout parties ( SYRIZA ) and put the ECB cushion they have in jeopardy. The far left leader Alexis Tsipras ( SYRIZA ), who wants out of the Euro, has gained in popularity since the May election which has sent world financial markets in a spin. But the exit poll discloses that pro-bailout conservative party lead over the anti-austerity radical leftists, and over 80 per cent of respondents state Greece needs to stay in Eurozone 'at all costs'.

The reverberations of the elections can be :
  •  1) Pro-bailout party comes into power and Greece stumbles along in Eurozone  - Clouds of market  uncertainty might linger on but EU integration should keep building up. 
  •  2) Anti-bailout party become the kings and Greece resorts to Drachma - Possible boycott for Greece and focus might shift to other bed-ridden countries like Spain, Portugal. Financial bedlam might worsen.
  • 3) None of the parties succeed to power leaving the country in a political turmoil - Party with the largest number of seats will be asked to form the government, and if none of them succeed re-poll is on the cards.

So, one might be coerced to think about the amicable outcomes for Greece from this election. There are times when one is locked in an asphyxiating room and the only way out is to shatter the glasses and jump from the 10th floor. In a nutshell, a lose-lose situation. But cracking the window open and making yourself resilient enough to survive till the smoke clears sounds the most rational. Greece's best shot would be to keep itself off the radar, win the confidence of European leaders, appease Angela Merkel and ECB to amend the bailout terms and stay in Eurozone.

Amongst all the chaos, the big lump in the everyone's throat is how will India survive if Greece exits and Eurozone bumbles down further. Depreciating rupee and weak GDP don't help the cause either. But the sweet truth is that Indian along with other Asian countries is better placed to withstand the EU blow. Indian trade relations with Greece is lilliputian and few Indian companies are exposed. All depends on the policymakers with whom we have surrendered our plummeting confidence.

Europe is some-one who is ill and is conscious of it. India on the other hand had a running temperature as well, but it never comes to light until Mr. Statistics goes down on its knees and pleads the government to come out if its chimera. India can come out of this box only if government keep aside its whim for power and make policy reforms to strengthen the economy.

Nonetheless, all financial know-it-all will have their eyes fixed on 17th June and will keep their fingers crossed for the doom before the DOOM.

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